Graffiti Groove
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$175.00
175 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $157.50 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.74%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
47.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=226, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Chef Kiss (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.550.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Popdog (Desert Amber)graffiti · #B0C3D9$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$400400 CSGOBIG_COIN2.29x
Sealed Graffiti | Heart (Monster Purple)graffiti · CommonbeN$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.160.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Desert Amber)graffiti · #B0C3D9$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.190.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Little EZ (Cash Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Fart (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.590.59 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sealed Graffiti | Chef Kiss (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.550.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $175 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.5%covert 4.5%covert knife 12.1%#B0C3D9 67.8%Common 15.1%best hit —