Silk Road Treasures

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.00

25 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $22.50 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

70.27%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

19.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%212.0%424.5%

Small sample. 6 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	70.27%±353.8	—	odds
30d	6	70.27%±353.8	—	odds
All	6	70.27%±353.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$3,451 3,451 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	13.6%	$66.10 66.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	40.0%	1	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	12.1%	$37.19 37.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.0%	0	0.7	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$26.99 26.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$10.44 10.44 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.5	—
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	16.6%	$9.10 9.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.7%	1	1.0	—
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Reactor (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	15.1%	$8.76 8.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.9%	2	0.9	—
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$7.58 7.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	10.6%	$5.11 5.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	1	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17	$4.08 4.08 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.4	—
Sealed Graffiti \| OMG (Tracer Yellow)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 22	$0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Sealed Graffiti \| Double (Tracer Yellow)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 33	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.2	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=232, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$9.109.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x1d

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.115.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x1d

Dual Berettas | Marina (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffPixelated$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.587.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.30x1d

Souvenir Glock-18 | Reactor (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.768.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.35x4d

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$66.1066.1 CSGOBIG_COIN2.64x4d

Souvenir Glock-18 | Reactor (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.768.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.35x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$25.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 25.8%restricted 1.5%mil spec 7.6%Restricted 16.6%#4B69FF 15.1%#8847ff 15.1%Classified 10.6%#B0C3D9 7.6%best hit —