Mayan Enigma
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.00
30 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $27.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
11.05%
11 openings, odds method
Variance
57.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 62
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 11 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=233, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New)weapon · industrial$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.411.41 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New)weapon · industrial$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.411.41 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · RarePawsMacFlynn$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.290.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedshipix$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.855.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x
Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.765.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x
Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.765.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed7 7.6%extraordinary 1.6%covert 10.6%restricted 16.7%Mil Spec Grade 12.1%milspec 6.1%industrial 16.6%#4B69FF 13.6%Rare 15.1%best hit —