Samurai Saga

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$50.00

50 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $45.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.71%

51 openings, odds method

Variance

43.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

33 openings · below min

30 days

51 openings · below min

since tracking started

51 openings · below min

-0.5%250.5%501.5%

Small sample. 51 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	9.80%±491.1	—	odds
7d	33	31.95%±226.2	—	odds
30d	51	71.71%±181.9	—	odds
All	51	71.71%±181.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$4,561 4,561 CSGOBIG_COIN	50.7%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 22	$416 416 CSGOBIG_COIN	41.9%	4	2.3	1.73×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.1%	$10.35 10.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	5	6.1	0.81×
Souvenir AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 66	$9.84 9.84 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	2	0.8	—
Music Kit \| Proxy, Battlepackmusic kit · blue	15.1%	$5.28 5.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	6	7.7	0.78×
P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	13.6%	$3.69 3.69 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	7	6.9	1.01×
Sticker \| autimatic \| Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 13	$3.60 3.6 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	4	3.8	1.04×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #F2F8FF	1 in 17	$2.79 2.79 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	4	3.1	1.30×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	10.6%	$0.82 0.82 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	4	5.4	0.74×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	16.6%	$0.51 0.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	9	8.5	1.06×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.38 0.38 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
Sealed Graffiti \| Fart (Monarch Blue)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 11	$0.38 0.38 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	6	4.6	1.30×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=235, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | autimatic | Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.603.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x1h

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.510.51 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x7h

Music Kit | Proxy, Battlepackmusic kit · blue$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.285.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x7h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.3510.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x11h

P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.693.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x11h

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.510.51 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x11h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.3510.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x11h

P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.693.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x1d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.3510.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$50.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.5%covert knife 4.5%classified 25.6%#4B69FF 9.1%blue 15.1%#F2F8FF 6.0%violet 10.6%restricted 16.6%milspec 3.0%#B0C3D9 9.0%best hit —