Normandy Victory

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$175.00

175 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $157.50 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.51%

7 openings, odds method

Variance

23.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

7 openings · below min

since tracking started

7 openings · below min

-0.5%216.5%433.5%

Small sample. 7 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	7	71.51%±361.2	—	odds
30d	7	71.51%±361.2	—	odds
All	7	71.51%±361.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$12.1K 12,053 CSGOBIG_COIN	38.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ BayonetStatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 66	$645 645 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	12.1%	$290 290 CSGOBIG_COIN	22.2%	1	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	16.6%	$225 225 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.7%	2	1.2	1.72×
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 11	$134 134 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.7%	1	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	10.6%	$22.45 22.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$10.44 10.44 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	15.1%	$1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon	1 in 22	$1.21 1.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.80 0.8 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.5	—
Sticker \| Obey SASsticker · high	13.6%	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.9	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=239, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$225225 CSGOBIG_COIN1.29x1d

★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$134134 CSGOBIG_COIN0.77x1d

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.211.21 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.390.39 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$225225 CSGOBIG_COIN1.29x5d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BAlex rose 🌹 They/She$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$290290 CSGOBIG_COIN1.66x5d

Sticker | Obey SASsticker · high$175175 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$175	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.5%covert knife 1.5%#EB4B4B 12.1%restricted 16.6%Industrial Grade 10.6%mil spec 3.0%violet 15.1%Uncommon 4.5%#4b69ff 6.0%milspec 7.5%high 13.6%best hit —