Winter Storm

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$100.00

100 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $90.00 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

153.73%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

6.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

21 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

2.5%137.0%271.5%

Small sample. 28 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	124.44%±121.5	—	odds
7d	21	158.49%±112.4	—	odds
30d	28	153.73%±97.4	—	odds
All	28	153.73%±97.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$2,420 2,420 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 250	$1,778 1,778 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 143	$1,488 1,488 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$1,177 1,177 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.1%	1	0.3	—
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 50	$1,088 1,088 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.2%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 1,000	$580 580 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$414 414 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.2%	2	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$195 195 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	10.5%	$187 187 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.7%	6	2.9	2.05×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	11.6%	$23.83 23.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	3	3.3	0.92×
Sticker \| hatz (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 21	$5.16 5.16 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	1.3	0.77×
Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$2.52 2.52 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	3	1.6	1.84×
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 43	$1.24 1.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.7	—
SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	14.0%	$0.89 0.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	6	3.9	1.54×
Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.53 0.53 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	2.3	0.88×
P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	12.8%	$0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$0.47 0.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	2.0	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 11	$0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	2.6	1.15×
Sealed Graffiti \| Eat It (Cash Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 86	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.3	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=24, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,1771,177 CSGOBIG_COIN11.77x21h

★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0881,088 CSGOBIG_COIN10.88x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.530.53 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4h

Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x4h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$23.8323.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x4h

SSG 08 | Slashed (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specLowbob$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.890.89 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4h

Sticker | hatz (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.165.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x4h

SSG 08 | Slashed (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.890.89 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$23.8323.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x21h

★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$187187 CSGOBIG_COIN1.87x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$100	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.4%#ffd700 0.4%extraordinary 1.0%legendary 2.0%#EB4B4B 4.8%classified 2.0%covert knife 10.5%mil spec 31.4%consumer 11.6%restricted 12.8%milspec 7.0%#B0C3D9 1.2%best hit $1,177 (11.77x)