Gilded Gambit

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$90.00

90 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $81.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

7.17%

25 openings, odds method

Variance

74.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

17 openings · below min

30 days

25 openings · below min

since tracking started

25 openings · below min

-0.5%599.3%1199.0%

Small sample. 25 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	1.59%±1197.0	—	odds
7d	17	7.40%±410.6	—	odds
30d	25	7.17%±338.6	—	odds
All	25	7.17%±338.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$11.9K 11,888 CSGOBIG_COIN	36.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$8,200 8,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	25.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$5,160 5,160 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.3%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 12	$36.28 36.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	2.1	0.00×
Sticker \| ropz (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	19.1%	$30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	4	4.8	0.84×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	21.7%	$3.63 3.63 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	2	5.4	0.37×
Sticker \| Hello AK-47 (Gold)sticker · #8847ff	11.0%	$3.29 3.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	5	2.8	1.81×
Sticker \| fer (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 18	$2.19 2.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	16.4%	$1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	10	4.1	2.44×
Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	13.7%	$0.76 0.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Zander (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	0.8	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=257, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$90.0090 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x9h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$90.0090 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x1d

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Zander (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspectaoyz$90.0090 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Zander (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$90.0090 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$90.0090 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.431.43 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x3d

Sticker | ropz (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · remarkable$90.0090 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x3d

Sticker | fer (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6$90.0090 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.192.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$90.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%extraordinary 0.3%exotic 8.4%remarkable 19.1%Mythical 21.7%#8847ff 11.0%#D32CE6 5.7%milspec 19.4%Industrial Grade 13.7%best hit —