Supreme Splendor
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.00
20 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
297.74%
119 openings, odds method
Variance
221.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 667
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 119 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=259, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$6,5006,500 CSGOBIG_COIN325.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertCalz$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$51.9751.97 CSGOBIG_COIN2.60x
StatTrak™ P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.730.73 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.4%#EB4B4B 0.1%mil spec 10.7%restricted 21.3%#4B69FF 3.7%#B0C3D9 24.8%milspec 17.8%Mil Spec 14.2%best hit $6,500 (325.0x)