Plush Payouts
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.00
30 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $27.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
115.70%
51 openings, odds method
Variance
47.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 86
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 51 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=262, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Kawaii Killer CTgraffiti · remarkable$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.962.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.2%#D32CE6 13.7%classified 11.0%#4B69FF 35.5%remarkable 8.3%restricted 21.8%violet 2.9%milspec 5.6%best hit $1,486 (49.53x)