Golden Fortune

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$100.00

100 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $90.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

34.02%

11 openings, odds method

Variance

26.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 53

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

10 openings · below min

30 days

11 openings · below min

since tracking started

11 openings · below min

-0.5%179.0%358.5%

Small sample. 11 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	10	36.77%±321.1	—	odds
30d	11	34.02%±306.2	—	odds
All	11	34.02%±306.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$10.3K 10,350 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$7,920 7,920 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$5,320 5,320 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$3,435 3,435 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.9%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.8%	$94.00 94 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.2%	2	1.2	1.69×
XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 13	$44.00 44 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	1	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	17.3%	$37.19 37.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	2	1.9	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted	20.5%	$35.26 35.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	1	2.3	0.44×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$10.57 10.57 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	23.8%	$6.45 6.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	3	2.6	1.15×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	14.0%	$2.61 2.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	1	1.5	0.65×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=263, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$37.1937.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x2d

XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$44.0044 CSGOBIG_COIN0.44x2d

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.456.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x2d

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedROSSI - SKINS$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.456.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x4d

Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedgowon$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.5710.57 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x6d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$94.0094 CSGOBIG_COIN0.94x6d

MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$35.2635.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.35x6d

UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$100100 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.612.61 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$100	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.8%legendary 0.1%Restricted 7.5%restricted 48.5%#8847ff 14.0%best hit —