Diamond Rush

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$200.00

200 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $180.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

1.82%

5 openings, odds method

Variance

124.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 250

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

5 openings · below min

30 days

5 openings · below min

since tracking started

5 openings · below min

-0.5%489.8%980.0%

Small sample. 5 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	5	1.82%±977.5	—	odds
30d	5	1.82%±977.5	—	odds
All	5	1.82%±977.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 2,000	$82.5K 82,535 CSGOBIG_COIN	22.9%	0	0.0	—
EMS Katowice 2014 Challengersother · base	1 in 1,000	$30.6K 30,630 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$14K 14,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$8,955 8,955 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.0%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| byali (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · #EB4B4B	19.3%	$254 254 CSGOBIG_COIN	27.2%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12	$25.89 25.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	13.8%	$15.75 15.75 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	16.5%	$6.87 6.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	0.8	—
Sticker \| tabseN (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 18	$6.04 6.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	22.0%	$1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	3	1.1	2.72×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 35	$0.76 0.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	11.1%	$0.71 0.71 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.6	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=264, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Last Dive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.761.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x6d

Sticker | tabseN (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.046.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x6d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Last Dive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.761.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x6d

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.876.87 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$200	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%base 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%covert 8.5%#EB4B4B 24.8%classified 13.8%Legendary 16.5%#8847FF 22.0%Rare 2.8%Mil Spec Grade 11.1%best hit —