Elite Exotics
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$500.00
500 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $450.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
10.05%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
19.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=266, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Nova | Exo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$500500 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.310.31 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifePOTATO$500500 CSGOBIG_COIN$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $500 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbase 0.3%covert 17.5%legendary 1.0%covert knife 40.6%Mythical 2.7%mil spec 10.8%milspec 18.9%#B0C3D9 8.1%best hit —