Treasure Trove

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$13.00

13 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $11.70 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

17.18%

65 openings, odds method

Variance

111.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 154

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

59 openings · below min

30 days

65 openings · below min

since tracking started

65 openings · below min

-0.5%733.3%1467.0%

Small sample. 65 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	2.38%±1464.1	—	odds
7d	59	17.52%±269.6	—	odds
30d	65	17.18%±256.8	—	odds
All	65	17.18%±256.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$4,840 4,840 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.7%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$2,550 2,550 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 200	$808 808 CSGOBIG_COIN	34.5%	0	0.3	—
Patch \| Aquatic Offensivepatch · Legendary	11.1%	$20.43 20.43 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.3%	4	7.2	0.56×
P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$6.61 6.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	2	2.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$2.34 2.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	1	3.7	0.27×
MAC-10 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	21.8%	$1.82 1.82 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	13	14.2	0.92×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	16.4%	$1.50 1.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	9	10.7	0.84×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	19.1%	$0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	16	12.4	1.29×
P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	13.8%	$0.29 0.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	11	8.9	1.23×
Sticker \| misutaaa (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021sticker · #8847FF	1 in 12	$0.25 0.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	9	5.5	1.65×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=270, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.290.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x4h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.330.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x4h

MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.821.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x1d

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.330.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

Patch | Aquatic Offensivepatch · Legendary$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$20.4320.43 CSGOBIG_COIN1.57x1d

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.330.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.821.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x1d

P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.616.61 CSGOBIG_COIN0.51x2d

MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.821.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x2d

Sticker | misutaaa (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · #8847FF$13.0013 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.250.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$13.00	90.01%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%epic 0.5%Legendary 11.1%pink 3.0%restricted 5.7%Consumer Grade 21.8%#4B69FF 35.6%#4b69ff 13.8%#8847FF 8.4%best hit —