Magnate's Magnificence

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.00

3 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.03%

EV $2.70 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.13%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

243.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

-0.5%582.0%1164.5%

Small sample. 48 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	8.76%±1155.3	—	odds
7d	36	84.34%±509.5	—	odds
30d	48	103.13%±441.2	—	odds
All	48	103.13%±441.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,285 3,285 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$2,500 2,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 10,000	$1,750 1,750 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$27.14 27.14 CSGOBIG_COIN	57.1%	5	2.7	1.83×
P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	22.0%	$0.47 0.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.8%	10	10.6	0.95×
Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.1%	$0.37 0.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	4	5.3	0.75×
Sealed Graffiti \| 1G (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 34	$0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	13.9%	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	7	6.7	1.05×
G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	19.3%	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	11	9.3	1.19×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	16.6%	$0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	6	8.0	0.75×
M249 \| Submerged (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 12	$0.21 0.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	4	4.0	0.99×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=271, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x3h

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x7h

StatTrak™ AUG | Triqua (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x7h

P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.470.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x7h

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x7h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecbrede$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.220.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x7h

StatTrak™ AUG | Triqua (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x1d

P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.470.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x1d

SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.1427.14 CSGOBIG_COIN9.05x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$3.00	90.03%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%Covert 0.0%legendary 0.0%Rare 5.7%mil spec 33.2%#B0C3D9 3.0%milspec 30.4%Mil Spec 19.3%Common 8.4%best hit —