Monarch's Money

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.00

8 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $7.20 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

17.87%

73 openings, odds method

Variance

177.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 500

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

13 openings · below min

7 days

59 openings · below min

30 days

73 openings · below min

since tracking started

73 openings · below min

-0.5%379.0%758.5%

Small sample. 73 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13	33.55%±724.3	—	odds
7d	59	20.09%±340.0	—	odds
30d	73	17.87%±305.7	—	odds
All	73	17.87%±305.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,000	$3,550 3,550 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$2,160 2,160 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 1,000	$1,450 1,450 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$800 800 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$25.81 25.81 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.4%	2	4.2	0.48×
G3SG1 \| Contractor (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9	11.1%	$1.87 1.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	11	8.1	1.36×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	16.5%	$1.40 1.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	13	12.1	1.08×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 34	$0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	4	2.2	1.84×
Souvenir MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 12	$0.32 0.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	1	6.1	0.16×
Sealed Graffiti \| 1G (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9	13.8%	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	12	10.1	1.19×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	21.9%	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	19	16.0	1.19×
Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade	19.2%	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	11	14.0	0.78×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=273, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.401.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.18x1h

G3SG1 | Contractor (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN0.23x1h

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1h

Sealed Graffiti | 1G (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9woodsnatch22$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1h

G3SG1 | Contractor (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN0.23x6h

Sealed Graffiti | 1G (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x6h

Sealed Graffiti | 1G (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x14h

StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.690.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x14h

M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.401.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.18x14h

Sealed Graffiti | 1G (Bazooka Pink)graffiti · #B0C3D9$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.270.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$8.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 0.1%restricted 5.7%#B0C3D9 24.9%Uncommon 16.5%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%Consumer Grade 8.4%milspec 21.9%Industrial Grade 19.2%best hit —