Lux Lotto

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.00

4 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $3.60 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

26.58%

453 openings, odds method

Variance

222.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 909

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

66 openings · below min

7 days

397 openings · below min

30 days

453 openings · below min

since tracking started

453 openings · below min

-0.5%184.8%370.0%

Small sample. 453 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	66	9.81%±359.5	—	odds
7d	397	27.44%±146.6	—	odds
30d	453	26.58%±137.2	—	odds
All	453	26.58%±137.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 453 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,720 1,720 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.9%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 1,000	$740 740 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.6%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| NiKo \| MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 33	$22.00 22 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.4%	14	13.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	11.1%	$0.95 0.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	43	50.4	0.85×
Sticker \| gla1ve (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 17	$0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	32	25.9	1.24×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.43 0.43 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	46	38.1	1.21×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	19.2%	$0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	80	87.1	0.92×
Nova \| Exo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.5%	$0.29 0.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	61	74.9	0.81×
Sealed Graffiti \| 200 IQ (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	13.8%	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	61	62.6	0.97×
Sticker \| Aerial (Foil) \| Berlin 2019sticker · #8847FF	21.9%	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	116	99.3	1.17×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=274, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.350.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x2h

Sticker | Aerial (Foil) | Berlin 2019sticker · #8847FF$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x2h

Nova | Exo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.290.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x2h

Sticker | Aerial (Foil) | Berlin 2019sticker · #8847FF$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x3h

Sealed Graffiti | 200 IQ (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9szticky$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x3h

Sealed Graffiti | 200 IQ (Brick Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x4h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.950.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.24x4h

Sticker | Aerial (Foil) | Berlin 2019sticker · #8847FF$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x4h

Sticker | gla1ve (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #D32CE6DaSpiderX$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.830.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$4.00	90.01%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%#4B69FF 3.0%Mythical 11.1%#D32CE6 5.7%mil spec 24.9%milspec 19.2%#B0C3D9 13.8%#8847FF 21.9%best hit —