Primo Plunder

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$80.00

80 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $72.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

16.64%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

100.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 333

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

14 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

-0.5%270.8%542.0%

Small sample. 14 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	14	16.64%±524.5	—	odds
30d	14	16.64%±524.5	—	odds
All	14	16.64%±524.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$18.9K 18,888 CSGOBIG_COIN	26.2%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$11.3K 11,345 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 1,000	$7,400 7,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.3%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$4,600 4,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	31.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 18	$116 116 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.0%	1	0.8	—
Sticker \| hooch (Foil) \| Cologne 2016sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 12	$21.60 21.6 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	1	1.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	19.2%	$10.64 10.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	4	2.7	1.49×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$8.70 8.7 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| Cyber Chicken (Holo)sticker · violet	16.5%	$2.65 2.65 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	2.3	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	22.0%	$1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	3	3.1	0.98×
Sealed Graffiti \| Smirk (Shark White)graffiti · #B0C3D9	11.0%	$1.02 1.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	1.5	1.29×
Sticker \| S1ren (Holo) \| Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6	13.8%	$0.38 0.38 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	3	1.9	1.56×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=276, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | S1ren (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.380.38 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3d

StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.6410.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x6d

Sealed Graffiti | Smirk (Shark White)graffiti · #B0C3D9$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.021.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x6d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$116116 CSGOBIG_COIN1.45x6d

G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.051.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x6d

Sealed Graffiti | Smirk (Shark White)graffiti · #B0C3D9$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.021.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x6d

StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.6410.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x6d

Sticker | S1ren (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6Fan$80.0080 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.380.38 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$80.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%remarkable 0.1%contraband 0.1%covert 0.5%#EB4B4B 5.6%#D32CE6 22.1%Restricted 19.2%classified 2.8%violet 16.5%blueLight 22.0%#B0C3D9 11.0%best hit —