Regal Riches

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.00

15 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $13.50 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

20.79%

36 openings, odds method

Variance

84.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 333

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

36 openings · below min

since tracking started

36 openings · below min

-0.5%343.8%688.0%

Small sample. 36 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	7.13%±680.3	—	odds
7d	36	20.79%±300.0	—	odds
30d	36	20.79%±300.0	—	odds
All	36	20.79%±300.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$3,305 3,305 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$2,105 2,105 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$85.00 85 CSGOBIG_COIN	35.2%	1	2.1	0.47×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$2.45 2.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	2	3.2	0.63×
Sticker \| FlameZ (Holo) \| Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6	13.8%	$1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	7	5.3	1.33×
Sealed Graffiti \| Shining Star (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9	16.6%	$0.66 0.66 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	8	6.3	1.27×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$0.57 0.57 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	11.1%	$0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	3	4.2	0.71×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	19.3%	$0.44 0.44 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	12	7.3	1.64×
Sticker \| Spartansticker · #4B69FF	22.0%	$0.32 0.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	5	8.4	0.60×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=277, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Shining Star (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.660.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x3h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x3h

P90 | Shallow Grave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.452.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x3h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec;D$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x3h

Sealed Graffiti | Shining Star (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.660.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x10h

Sticker | FlameZ (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.421.42 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x12h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec★ ninjaApple$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

P90 | Shallow Grave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.452.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x1d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.440.44 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$15.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%remarkable 0.1%classified 5.6%pink 8.3%#D32CE6 13.8%#B0C3D9 16.6%violet 2.9%#4B69FF 33.1%milspec 19.3%best hit —