Precious Payday

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.00

30 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $27.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

20.37%

38 openings, odds method

Variance

35.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 118

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

27 openings · below min

30 days

38 openings · below min

since tracking started

38 openings · below min

-0.5%244.8%490.0%

Small sample. 38 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	13.36%±475.7	—	odds
7d	27	25.31%±224.3	—	odds
30d	38	20.37%±189.0	—	odds
All	38	20.37%±189.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 1,000	$3,500 3,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.6%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$1,130 1,130 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$655 655 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 36	$146 146 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.9%	1	1.0	0.96×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$8.26 8.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	2	2.1	0.96×
SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	21.8%	$4.96 4.96 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	7	8.3	0.85×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	16.3%	$2.79 2.79 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	6	6.2	0.97×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	13.6%	$1.82 1.82 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	4	5.2	0.77×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	19.1%	$1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	6	7.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	10.9%	$0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	6	4.1	1.45×
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.16 0.16 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	6	3.1	1.93×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=278, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.792.79 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x15h

SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.964.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x15h

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.821.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x15h

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.268.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.28x15h

SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.964.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x15h

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.261.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x15h

StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.460.46 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x3d

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.792.79 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x3d

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.160.16 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x3d

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.792.79 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$30.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%covert 7.0%#eb4b4b 2.8%industrial 21.8%#4B69FF 16.3%restricted 13.6%Mil Spec Grade 19.1%milspec 10.9%mil spec 8.2%best hit —