5% Glock
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.76
27.76 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $24.98 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.68%
105 openings, odds method
Variance
19.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 105 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 105 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 40.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.90× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $600 600 CSGOBIG_COIN | 24.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald)weapon · #eb4b4b · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $208 208 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Work For Ammosticker · Rare | 95.0% | $2.00 2 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.6% | 103 | 99.8 | 1.03× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=288, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$27.7627.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN36.02x
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$27.7627.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN36.02x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $27.76 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 2.0%red 1.0%#eb4b4b 1.0%covert 1.0%Rare 95.0%best hit $1,000 (36.02x)