Lucky Pandora
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$42.33
42.33 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $38.10 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.71%
15 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 15 openings and 6.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary | 1 in 2,000 | $4,000 4,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 500 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 21 | $200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 24.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 35.0% | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG_COIN | 55.1% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
| Sticker | Bish (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 60.0% | $6.00 6 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.4% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=289, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · coverttabb3n$42.3342.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$60.0060 CSGOBIG_COIN1.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.33 | 90.01% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 39.9%Remarkable 60.0%best hit —