10% Karambit

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$153.00

153 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $137.70 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

160.22%

55 openings, odds method

Variance

17.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

49 openings · below min

30 days

55 openings · below min

since tracking started

55 openings · below min

-0.5%201.8%404.0%

Small sample. 55 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	65.36%±337.8	—	odds
7d	49	166.50%±118.2	—	odds
30d	55	160.22%±111.6	—	odds
All	55	160.22%±111.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$9,300 9,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 500	$7,300 7,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 333	$5,700 5,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$3,400 3,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$2,200 2,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.1%	1	0.8	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 57	$1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$600 600 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.7%	1	1.1	0.91×
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 44	$382 382 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	1	1.2	0.81×
Sealed Graffiti \| Karambit (Shark White)graffiti · Common	90.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	49	49.5	0.99×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=290, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$9,3009,300 CSGOBIG_COIN60.78x6d

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,2001,200 CSGOBIG_COIN7.84x3d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN6.54x3d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,0001,000 CSGOBIG_COIN6.54x7d

★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$600600 CSGOBIG_COIN3.92x5m

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sealed Graffiti | Karambit (Shark White)graffiti · Common$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5m

★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$600600 CSGOBIG_COIN3.92x5m

Sealed Graffiti | Karambit (Shark White)graffiti · Common$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6h

Sealed Graffiti | Karambit (Shark White)graffiti · Common$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Sealed Graffiti | Karambit (Shark White)graffiti · Common$153153 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$153	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%Common 90.0%best hit $9,300 (60.78x)