5% Ruby

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$207.00

207 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $186.30 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

537.67%

9 openings, odds method

Variance

26.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

9 openings · below min

since tracking started

9 openings · below min

89.5%653.8%1218.0%

Small sample. 9 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	806.00%±411.3	—	odds
7d	9	537.67%±335.8	—	odds
30d	9	537.67%±335.8	—	odds
All	9	537.67%±335.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$10K 10,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	26.8%	1	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$4,000 4,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$760 760 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	95.0%	$2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	8	8.5	0.94×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=291, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$207207 CSGOBIG_COIN$10K10,000 CSGOBIG_COIN48.31x15h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted$207207 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.102.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x15h

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$207207 CSGOBIG_COIN$10K10,000 CSGOBIG_COIN48.31x15h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restrictedHeaded$207207 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.102.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x15h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted$207207 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.102.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x15h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted$207207 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.102.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$207	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.0%restricted 95.0%best hit $10K (48.31x)