Secret Symphony
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.00
13 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $11.70 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
15.00%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $438 438 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $230 230 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $146 146 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $80.00 80 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 22 | $28.00 28 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Bossy Burgersticker · blue | 90.0% | $1.95 1.95 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=293, 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.00 | 89.96% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%classified 5.0%red 4.5%blue 90.0%best hit —