Halloween Budget
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.00
15 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.50 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
134.13%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=3, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Stockholm 2021 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokensother · #B0C3D9$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN2.33x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.570.57 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.800.8 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
Stockholm 2021 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokensother · #B0C3D9$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN2.33x
M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.2329.23 CSGOBIG_COIN1.95x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.00 | 90.00% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 12.9%#B0C3D9 8.8%extraordinary 8.8%#EB4B4B 9.9%Mil Spec Grade 2.1%#d2d2d2 3.1%restricted 5.2%Industrial 7.3%Industrial Grade 6.7%#4B69FF 10.4%mil spec 8.8%#8847FF 9.3%milspec 5.7%violet 1.0%best hit —