Killer Loadout
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$535.00
535 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $481.50 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
36.14%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $15.4K 15,400 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $13K 13,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $10.4K 10,400 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 67 | $5,200 5,200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 29 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 15 | $600 600 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $360 360 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $240 240 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 57.0% | $100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=306, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted$535535 CSGOBIG_COIN$240240 CSGOBIG_COIN0.45x
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restrictedRaven 5K LB BiW$535535 CSGOBIG_COIN$240240 CSGOBIG_COIN0.45x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $535 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%covert 58.2%contraband 1.5%restricted 40.0%best hit —