Faded
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.94
0.94 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.04%
EV $0.85 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
31.91%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
108.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 91
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 10,000 | $365 365 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,176 | $155 155 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG_COIN | 41.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 44.8% | $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 26.5% | 14 | 12.5 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · high | 54.1% | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.4% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.92× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=308, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffCricri gameplays$0.940.94 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.53x
AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffCricri gameplays$0.940.94 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.94 | 90.04% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.0%covert knife 0.1%mil spec 1.0%#4b69ff 44.8%high 54.1%best hit —