Profit Mania

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.00

2 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1.80 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.75%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

44 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

-0.5%173.8%348.0%

Small sample. 48 openings and 10.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	44.50%±303.0	—	odds
7d	44	79.08%±45.7	—	odds
30d	48	79.75%±43.7	—	odds
All	48	79.75%±43.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 50,000	$410 410 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33,333	$175 175 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 20,000	$126 126 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$45.00 45 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Detour (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 30	$7.39 7.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.8%	1	1.6	0.62×
Sticker \| MIBR (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 24	$6.02 6.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.0%	2	2.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$4.50 4.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.5%	1	2.4	0.42×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$4.25 4.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.6%	5	4.4	1.14×
Operation Riptide Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 17	$2.41 2.41 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	5	2.8	1.78×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$2.06 2.06 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$1.32 1.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	1	3.6	0.28×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$0.89 0.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	6	4.8	1.25×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.4%	$0.85 0.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.9%	6	6.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 12	$0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.8%	3	4.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$0.66 0.66 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	0.8	—
FAMAS \| Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	10.8%	$0.52 0.52 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	7	5.2	1.35×
Sticker \| Meriettasticker · Rare	1 in 113	$0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| advent \| Katowice 2019sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 15	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	2	3.2	0.63×
Sealed Graffiti \| Jump Shot (Shark White)graffiti · #B0C3D9	11.6%	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	8	5.6	1.44×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=31, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.890.89 CSGOBIG_COIN0.45x16h

MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.254.25 CSGOBIG_COIN2.13x1d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.830.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.42x1d

Sticker | MIBR (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.026.02 CSGOBIG_COIN3.01x1d

FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.520.52 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x1d

Sealed Graffiti | Jump Shot (Shark White)graffiti · #B0C3D9ĐøT$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x1d

MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.254.25 CSGOBIG_COIN2.13x1d

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.660.66 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x2d

Operation Riptide Casecontainer · Base Grade$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.412.41 CSGOBIG_COIN1.21x2d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.830.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.42x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$2.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%mil spec 26.7%#EB4B4B 4.2%Classified 5.0%Base Grade 5.8%restricted 2.5%#4b69ff 18.3%#8847ff 10.0%milspec 8.3%Rare 0.9%#4B69FF 6.7%#B0C3D9 11.6%best hit —