Blaze
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.34
0.34 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $0.31 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.37%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
390.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 476
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 10,000 | $520 520 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 2,000 | $160 160 CSGOBIG_COIN | 26.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 667 | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG_COIN | 29.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue | 15.0% | $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 24.6% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× |
| XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec | 84.8% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.8% | 56 | 57.7 | 0.97× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=310, 12 Nov, 01:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecLuisXvi$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecbeef andcheese$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.34 | 89.85% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%mil spec 0.2%blue 15.0%milspec 84.8%best hit —