Chaos
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.24
0.24 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
91.67%
EV $0.22 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
4.17%
149 openings, odds method
Variance
19009.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 149 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100,000 | $8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 36.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 100,000 | $6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 27.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 50,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 16,667 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 100.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.5% | 149 | 149.0 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=311, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerNiki BG Ritas$0.240.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerNiki BG Ritas$0.240.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerNiki BG Ritas$0.240.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerNiki BG Ritas$0.240.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerNiki BG Ritas$0.240.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerlatvian licker$0.240.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.24 | 91.67% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%high 0.0%consumer 100.0%best hit —