Feeling Rusty
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.12
2.12 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.83%
EV $1.90 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
176.08%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
28.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 10,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 4,000 | $325 325 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 2,000 | $250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 38 | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 37.0% | $2.40 2.4 CSGOBIG_COIN | 46.6% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.95× |
| SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec | 60.0% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.9% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=312, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.402.4 CSGOBIG_COIN1.13x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.402.4 CSGOBIG_COIN1.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.12 | 89.83% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 0.2%#ffd700 0.1%mil spec 2.6%Industrial Grade 37.0%milspec 60.0%best hit —