10% Dagger
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.09
9.09 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.04%
EV $8.19 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
127.88%
125 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 10,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,111 | $250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $160 160 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 167 | $120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $80.00 80 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.60× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 33 | $70.00 70 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.7% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.60× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 21 | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN | 28.7% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| Shadow Casecontainer · Base Grade | 90.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.0% | 113 | 112.5 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=313, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$9.099.09 CSGOBIG_COIN$500500 CSGOBIG_COIN55.01x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700$9.099.09 CSGOBIG_COIN$70.0070 CSGOBIG_COIN7.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.09 | 90.04% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%#ffd700 3.0%Base Grade 90.0%best hit $500 (55.01x)