Nightshade
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.50
5.5 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.06%
EV $4.95 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.32%
107 openings, odds method
Variance
44.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 107 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 107 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $600 600 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 500 | $280 280 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 333 | $150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 76 | $80.00 80 CSGOBIG_COIN | 21.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN | 30.3% | 1 | 5.4 | 0.19× |
| R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 18.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.6% | 24 | 19.3 | 1.25× |
| Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777 | 75.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.2% | 82 | 80.3 | 1.02× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=314, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New)weapon · consumerCl0udStr1fe$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.18x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777avgdegen$5.505.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.06%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.50 | 90.06% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.0%covert 1.5%Covert 0.2%knifes 0.3%consumer 18.0%#777777 75.0%best hit —