Tornado
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.76
3.76 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3.38 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.04%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 500 | $110 110 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| SG 553 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · gray | 1 in 167 | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| MAC-10 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 50 | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| M4A4 | Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 14 | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| Tec-9 | Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 22.2% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.12× |
| MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 75.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 22.2% | 13 | 16.5 | 0.79× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=315, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.763.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.763.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.763.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.763.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.763.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.763.76 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.76 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 7.4%gray 0.6%consumer 17.0%Consumer Grade 75.0%best hit —