Stormbringer

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$41.02

41.02 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $36.92 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

17.34%

12 openings, odds method

Variance

25.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

12 openings · below min

30 days

12 openings · below min

since tracking started

12 openings · below min

-0.5%150.3%301.0%

Small sample. 12 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	12	17.34%±283.1	—	odds
30d	12	17.34%±283.1	—	odds
All	12	17.34%±283.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$7,000 7,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 67	$500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$140 140 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$60.00 60 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.4%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.2%	3	1.8	1.67×
Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9	25.0%	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	2	3.0	0.67×
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	46.0%	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	7	5.5	1.27×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=317, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x1d

M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN0.61x2d

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.0025 CSGOBIG_COIN0.61x5d

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecLouisInRussian$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9$41.0241.02 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$41.02	90.01%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.5%Covert 1.5%covert knife 3.0%extraordinary 7.0%mil spec 15.0%#B0C3D9 25.0%milspec 46.0%best hit —