Phoenix Fury
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$54.67
54.67 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $49.20 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
1.83%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 100 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 40.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 17.0% | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Slid3 Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9 | 70.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=318, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $54.67 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 1.0%covert 2.0%covert knife 10.0%Covert 17.0%#B0C3D9 70.0%best hit —