10% USP-S
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.00
2 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $1.80 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.95%
610 openings, odds method
Variance
12.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 28
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 622 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Orion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 10,000 | $108 108 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 204 | $68.00 68 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.5% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.64× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Serum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.9% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.7% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.96× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 33 | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.3% | 20 | 18.7 | 1.07× |
| USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 29 | $9.26 9.26 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.5% | 16 | 21.1 | 0.76× |
| USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff | 90.0% | $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.5% | 566 | 559.8 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=32, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ffmaekechico$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.090.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.00 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 0.0%classified 1.6%mil spec 5.4%Restricted 3.0%#87c7ff 90.0%best hit —