Risky Business
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$247.72
248 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $222.95 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
24.57%
21 openings, odds method
Variance
17.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 21 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 10,000 | $69K 69,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $13K 13,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 112 | $6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 26.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $450 450 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 15.0% | $180 180 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 18.0% | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.0% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 22.0% | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.5% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.73× |
| AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 30.0% | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.4% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=321, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifegowon$248248 CSGOBIG_COIN$450450 CSGOBIG_COIN1.82x
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert$248248 CSGOBIG_COIN$180180 CSGOBIG_COIN0.73x
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert$248248 CSGOBIG_COIN$180180 CSGOBIG_COIN0.73x
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4bgowon$248248 CSGOBIG_COIN$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $248 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%covert 19.9%covert knife 10.0%#eb4b4b 18.0%blue 22.0%violet 30.0%best hit —