Volatile
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$610.33
610 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $549.30 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
38.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 500 | $71K 71,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $31K 31,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 200 | $15K 15,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert | 16.0% | $400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 33.0% | $100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 46.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=323, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $610 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.2%covert 20.8%covert knife 33.0%industrial 46.0%