Redemption
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$349.33
349 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $314.40 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $10.9K 10,900 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $6,100 6,100 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 80 | $4,300 4,300 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 20 | $1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG_COIN | 20.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 17 | $550 550 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 15.0% | $75.00 75 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP9 | Music Box (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 35.0% | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=324, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $349 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.2%extraordinary 0.5%legendary 1.3%gold 11.0%classified 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 35.0%