Shackled
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.30
0.3 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $0.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.18%
55 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 55 openings and 15.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $77.00 77 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $3.42 3.42 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere | London 2018sticker · #4B69FF | 1 in 17 | $1.27 1.27 CSGOBIG_COIN | 27.6% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.86× |
| Sticker | Summer | Katowice 2019sticker · #4B69FF | 1 in 12 | $0.38 0.38 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.0% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.71× |
| Sticker | WorldEdit | Katowice 2019sticker · Rare | 13.8% | $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.4% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| Negev | Prototype (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 31 | $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.9% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.26× |
| Sticker | Good Versus Evilsticker · Rare | 19.1% | $0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.4% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |
| SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 21.7% | $0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.7% | 5 | 11.9 | 0.42× |
| Sticker | Nademansticker · Rare | 16.4% | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.9% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.77× |
| Sealed Graffiti | X-Axes (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9 | 11.1% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.2% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.30× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=33, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Good Versus Evilsticker · Rarelatvian licker$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.190.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.63x
SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer GradeLuisXvi$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.170.17 CSGOBIG_COIN0.57x
Sticker | WorldEdit | Katowice 2019sticker · RareLuisXvi$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.360.36 CSGOBIG_COIN1.20x
Sticker | Summer | Katowice 2019sticker · #4B69FFcartell$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.380.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.27x
Sticker | Good Versus Evilsticker · Rarethisishawkyafeelme$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.190.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.63x
Sticker | Natus Vincere | London 2018sticker · #4B69FF$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.271.27 CSGOBIG_COIN4.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.30 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.3%#4B69FF 14.4%Rare 52.5%Consumer Grade 21.7%#B0C3D9 11.1%best hit —