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Frosty

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$44.57
44.57 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $40.11 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
50.10%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
22.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
28 openings · below min
30 days
28 openings · below min
since tracking started
28 openings · below min
-0.5%112.0%224.5%

Small sample. 28 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d2850.10%±173.8—odds
30d2850.10%±173.8—odds
All2850.10%±173.8—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$4,900 4,900 CSGOBIG_COIN12.2%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG_COIN9.0%00.1—
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 500$1,376 1,376 CSGOBIG_COIN6.9%00.1—
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200$1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN12.5%00.1—
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 200$700 700 CSGOBIG_COIN8.7%00.1—
★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN10.0%00.3—
Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN12.5%10.6—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$140 140 CSGOBIG_COIN10.5%10.8—
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20$50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN6.2%21.41.43×
Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #D32CE625.0%$15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN9.3%77.01.00×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted30.0%$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN2.2%108.41.19×
MP5-SD | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec32.5%$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%79.10.77×
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=330, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #D32CE6$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
MP5-SD | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
MP5-SD | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
MP5-SD | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #D32CE6BigD$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #D32CE6$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · #D32CE6$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x
Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified$44.5744.57 CSGOBIG_COIN$250250 CSGOBIG_COIN5.61x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$44.5790.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.3%epic 0.2%classified 2.5%covert 9.5%#D32CE6 25.0%restricted 30.0%milspec 32.5%best hit —