Fireball
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.81
46.81 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $42.13 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
159.53%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
22.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $5,800 5,800 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 53 | $900 900 CSGOBIG_COIN | 40.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $75.00 75 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 17.0% | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 26.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 39.0% | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.1% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.28× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=331, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$900900 CSGOBIG_COIN19.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$250250 CSGOBIG_COIN5.34x
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specBigD$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specBarthicus$46.8146.81 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $46.81 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.1%epic 1.9%restricted 4.0%classified 31.0%exotic 17.0%mil spec 39.0%best hit $900 (19.23x)