Nightmare Madness
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.00
35 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.50 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.63%
13 openings, odds method
Variance
14.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 13 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $700 700 CSGOBIG_COIN | 22.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 40 | $300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 33.0% | $1.92 1.92 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.0% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 47.0% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=332, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$300300 CSGOBIG_COIN8.57x
PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.0035 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $35.00 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%Covert 1.0%rare 2.5%industrial 91.0%best hit —