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A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.00

8 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $7.20 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.67%

15 openings, odds method

Variance

96.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

15 openings · below min

since tracking started

15 openings · below min

-0.5%1003.0%2006.5%

Small sample. 15 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	78.63%±1927.3	—	odds
7d	7	40.04%±728.4	—	odds
30d	15	71.67%±497.6	—	odds
All	15	71.67%±497.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$3,680 3,680 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$2,860 2,860 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$2,655 2,655 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$2,159 2,159 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,870 1,870 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,520 1,520 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 5,000	$1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 3,333	$845 845 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$520 520 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	15.1%	$17.49 17.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	36.6%	3	2.3	1.33×
Sticker \| Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkable	13.6%	$6.29 6.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.9%	3	2.0	1.47×
FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$4.97 4.97 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	10.6%	$2.85 2.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	3	1.6	1.89×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$1.68 1.68 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	1	1.4	0.73×
M249 \| Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 33	$1.65 1.65 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	1	0.5	—
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Indigo (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	12.1%	$0.91 0.91 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	2	1.8	1.10×
Sticker \| FalleN (Glitter) \| Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF	1 in 22	$0.67 0.67 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	16.6%	$0.29 0.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	1	2.5	0.40×
Nova \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested)weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 16	$0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.9	—
Sealed Graffiti \| King Me (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 13	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=34, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkablelukasghilario$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.296.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.79x11h

Sticker | Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkable$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.296.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.79x4d

StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.290.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x4d

Souvenir MAC-10 | Indigo (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9DaSpiderX$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.910.91 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x4d

Sticker | Jack (Holo)sticker · remarkable$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.296.29 CSGOBIG_COIN0.79x4d

Sticker | FalleN (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · #8847FF$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.670.67 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x4d

Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedPepaRambo$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.681.68 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$8.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%classified 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%epic 0.0%red 15.1%remarkable 13.6%restricted 10.6%gray 10.6%Consumer Grade 3.1%#B0C3D9 25.7%#8847FF 4.6%milspec 16.6%best hit —