Supernatural

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3,888.00

3,888 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $3,499.21 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

6.17%

1 openings, odds method

Variance

7.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

1 openings · below min

since tracking started

1 openings · below min

-0.5%262.8%526.0%

Small sample. 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	6.17%±519.0	—	odds
7d	1	6.17%±519.0	—	odds
30d	1	6.17%±519.0	—	odds
All	1	6.17%±519.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$82K 82,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$49K 49,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$31K 31,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.9%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$22K 22,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 50	$15K 15,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$11K 11,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 33	$8,650 8,650 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 25	$6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$4,600 4,600 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 17	$2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 11	$1,250 1,250 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$475 475 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	14.0%	$240 240 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	1	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	17.0%	$110 110 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	24.0%	$39.20 39.2 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.2	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=348, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bayonet | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertDPG (ಠ_ಠ)$3,8883,888 CSGOBIG_COIN$240240 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$3,888	90.00%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.0%covert 74.0%extraordinary 1.0%remarkable 1.0%epic 6.0%#4b69ff 17.0%best hit —