Nebula
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.00
3 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $2.70 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.67%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=35, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.491.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.50x
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.434.43 CSGOBIG_COIN1.48x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.491.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.50x
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.822.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.94x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedHarryHeaded$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.371.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.46x
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.822.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.94x
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.434.43 CSGOBIG_COIN1.48x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.491.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.50x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.00 | 90.01% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 57.7%classified 2.0%Mythical 9.4%Restricted 18.8%violet 12.1%best hit —