Ethereal

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$14.80

14.8 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $13.32 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

51.09%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

32.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 35

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

25 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

-0.5%140.3%281.0%

Small sample. 32 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	25	56.99%±223.3	—	odds
30d	32	51.09%±197.3	—	odds
All	32	51.09%±197.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$3,020 3,020 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 1,000	$1,060 1,060 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 500	$650 650 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$265 265 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$175 175 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$125 125 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$67.00 67 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$41.00 41 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 27	$26.00 26 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.6%	$14.00 14 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.2%	4	4.0	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	21.4%	$7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.4%	5	6.8	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	57.6%	$1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	21	18.4	1.14×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=358, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.0014 CSGOBIG_COIN0.95x1d

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.881.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x1d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.0014 CSGOBIG_COIN0.95x1d

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.881.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x1d

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Gradeda ander$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.881.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x1d

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.881.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x2d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.0014 CSGOBIG_COIN0.95x2d

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covertB1NG$14.8014.8 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.707.7 CSGOBIG_COIN0.52x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$14.80	90.00%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.9%gold 0.1%Covert 0.2%covert knife 0.5%classified 14.9%extraordinary 1.1%Classified 3.8%Consumer Grade 57.6%best hit —