30% Gem

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$800.42

800 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $720.38 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

7.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$15K 15,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.8%	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 100	$11.2K 11,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.5%	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$8,700 8,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.1%	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$6,300 6,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.7%	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$3,680 3,680 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.2%	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 50	$2,300 2,300 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 33	$1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 33	$1,240 1,240 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20	$820 820 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.7%	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20	$650 650 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.5%	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 17	$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	—
P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer	26.2%	$0.29 0.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	—
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	43.8%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=372, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$800	90.00%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 30.0%consumer 70.0%