Price
$35.31
35.31 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.78 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
118.47%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $162 162 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $127 127 CSGOBIG_COIN | 31.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $114 114 CSGOBIG_COIN | 35.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b | 36.0% | $3.46 3.46 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 41.0% | $2.19 2.19 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=376, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $35.31 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.0%#eb4b4b 36.0%classified 41.0%best hit —